St. Bonaventure

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	24.0
Current RPI:	24
Expected SOS:	89
Current SOS:	89
Current Record:	25-7
Expected Record:	25-7
Current Conf Record:	15-5
Expected Conf Record:	15-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	9-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	18
Expected OOC SOS:	59

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-7	24.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Bonaventure.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	75-77	L	0%
11-18	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	72-58	W	100%
11-20	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	96-48	W	100%
11-24	Maryland (74.0)	B10	N	61-63	W	100%
11-25	TCU (26.0)	B12	N	79-89	L	0%
11-29	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	55-75	W	100%
12-2	Buffalo (25.0)	MAC	A	62-73	W	100%
12-6	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	A	65-73	W	100%
12-9	Yale (183.0)	Ivy	H	75-67	W	100%
12-16	Vermont (60.0)	AE	N	81-79	W	100%
12-20	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	84-65	W	100%
12-22	Syracuse (45.0)	ACC	A	57-60	W	100%
12-30	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	H	98-78	W	100%
1-3	Dayton (146.0)	A10	A	82-72	L	0%
1-6	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	A	85-78	L	0%
1-10	Fordham (290.0)	A10	H	77-61	W	100%
1-13	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	87-73	L	0%
1-19	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	83-73	L	0%
1-24	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	H	70-67	W	100%
1-28	George Washington (195.0)	A10	H	70-52	W	100%
1-31	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	69-85	W	100%
2-3	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	81-84	W	100%
2-7	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	H	79-56	W	100%
2-10	Richmond (176.0)	A10	H	97-88	W	100%
2-13	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	68-79	W	100%
2-16	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	H	77-74	W	100%
2-21	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	H	73-67	W	100%
2-24	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	63-68	W	100%
2-27	Davidson (47.0)	A10	H	117-113	W	100%
3-3	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	A	56-64	W	100%
3-9	Richmond (176.0)	A10	N	83-77	W	100%
3-10	Davidson (47.0)	A10	N	70-82	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Bonaventure's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Bonaventure's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Bonaventure.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Bonaventure	A10	26.17	26.17	80.14	80.14	15.78	15.78
Davidson	A10	5.35	5.35	65.52	65.52	1.66	1.66
Rhode Island	A10	3.86	3.86	80.00	80.00	2.31	2.31
Richmond	A10	3.83	3.83	40.00	40.00	-0.77	-0.77
Saint Louis	A10	3.81	3.81	53.33	53.33	0.25	0.25
Duquesne	A10	3.76	3.76	53.33	53.33	0.25	0.25
Saint Joseph's	A10	3.73	3.73	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	2.32	2.32	46.88	46.88	-0.14	-0.14
Massachusetts	A10	2.27	2.27	40.62	40.62	-0.43	-0.43
George Mason	A10	2.27	2.27	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	2.27	2.27	30.00	30.00	-0.91	-0.91
VCU	A10	2.25	2.25	56.25	56.25	0.28	0.28
La Salle	A10	2.24	2.24	41.94	41.94	-0.36	-0.36
Dayton	A10	2.24	2.24	43.33	43.33	-0.30	-0.30
Vermont	AE	1.69	1.69	81.25	81.25	1.05	1.05
Canisius	MAAC	1.68	1.68	67.74	67.74	0.60	0.60
Niagara	MAAC	1.68	1.68	58.06	58.06	0.27	0.27
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.66	1.66	17.24	17.24	-1.09	-1.09
Siena	MAAC	1.66	1.66	25.81	25.81	-0.80	-0.80
Maryland	B10	1.64	1.64	60.00	60.00	0.33	0.33
Buffalo	MAC	1.64	1.64	78.12	78.12	0.92	0.92
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.61	1.61	34.48	34.48	-0.50	-0.50
Syracuse	ACC	1.61	1.61	62.50	62.50	0.40	0.40
Yale	Ivy	1.61	1.61	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
TCU	B12	1.59	1.59	64.52	64.52	0.46	0.46
Northeastern	CAA	1.59	1.59	70.97	70.97	0.67	0.67
Iona	MAAC	0.25	0.25	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.24	0.24	73.53	73.53	0.11	0.11
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.24	0.24	36.36	36.36	-0.07	-0.07
Harvard	Ivy	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.19	0.19	93.94	93.94	0.17	0.17
Penn	Ivy	0.18	0.18	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Cornell	Ivy	0.17	0.17	40.74	40.74	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.17	0.17	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.17	0.17	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.12	-0.12
Manhattan	MAAC	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.15	0.15	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Fairfield	MAAC	0.15	0.15	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.15	0.15	19.35	19.35	-0.09	-0.09
Nevada	MWC	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Toledo	MAC	0.15	0.15	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Akron	MAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
VMI	SC	0.15	0.15	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.12	0.12	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Holy Cross	Pat	0.12	0.12	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Providence	BE	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.12	0.12	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Robert Morris	NEC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.12	0.12	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Wake Forest	ACC	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Brown	Ivy	0.10	0.10	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.10	0.10	23.08	23.08	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Hofstra	CAA	0.10	0.10	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Temple	Amer	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Western Michigan	MAC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.07	0.07	17.86	17.86	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Seton Hall	BE	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Binghamton	AE	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
UMass Lowell	AE	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.02	0.02	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02